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Japan may barely maintain a rise in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession under the impact of tariffs.
Jin10 data reported on August 14th that despite facing the impact of US tariffs, Japan's economy is still expected to achieve moderate growth in the second quarter driven by domestic demand from capital expenditures, thus avoiding a technical recession. The median estimate from economists indicates that Japan's second quarter GDP may rise at an annualized rate of 0.4%, reversing the contraction seen in the previous quarter. Among 32 analysts surveyed, there is significant divergence in forecasts: 4 expect the economy to continue contracting, while 5 believe the growth rate will reach 1% or higher. The Japanese Cabinet Office will release preliminary data on Friday. This data may prompt the Central Bank of Japan to maintain its policy path for another rate hike this year—as long as authorities are confident that they can withstand the ongoing pressure of US trade policies on global business with resilient domestic demand.