US stocks fell 5% vs Bitcoin rose 5.6%: The first asset rotation signal of the Trump era has appeared.

• Bitcoin soared to $95,490, and the market is holding its breath for Trump's hundred-day governance speech. In the past week, investors withdrew over $4 billion in BTC from the exchange, releasing a strong bullish signal.
• Trump's policy combination - including the potential establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and the restarting of tariff threats - is creating a situation where opportunities and risks coexist. As the stock market is under pressure, Bitcoin is benefiting from the growing demand for safe-haven assets.
• On-chain data shows that the exchange's Bitcoin reserves have sharply declined. If market momentum and supply tightening continue, the conditions for breaking through the $100,000 threshold are maturing.

strong rebound on Monday

Bitcoin ( BTC ) rebounded strongly to $95,490 on Monday, coinciding with the market's preparation for Trump's hundred-day speech. As the announcement of cryptocurrency-specific policies approaches, investors are beginning to adjust their positions — on-chain data has already shown some signs.

the driving force above $95,000

CoinGecko data shows that Bitcoin rose 0.8% in 24 hours, reaching $95,490.92. During Monday's trading session, BTC fluctuated between $92,953 and $95,490, maintaining recent upward momentum. The weekly performance is also robust, up 8.9% compared to last Monday, with a cumulative rise of about 15% over the past 30 days. The crypto market is closely watching whether Trump will make a clear statement regarding the rumored Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal.

Capital Migration

Just after Trump's controversial call for interest rate cuts, over $4 billion in Bitcoin has flowed out of exchanges in the past week. Investors are clearly transferring tokens to cold wallets, which is typically a bullish sign.

The Cryptocurrency Effect of Trump's First Hundred Days in Office

The recent rise of Bitcoin is not an isolated event—it is fluctuating in sync with the US stock market, especially the stocks of tech giants, as the market tries to anticipate the signals that Trump’s speech may release. Analysts say that if Trump officially supports Bitcoin reserves, it could trigger a parabolic rise targeting $100,000. Conversely, if the focus shifts too much toward tariffs or severe budget cuts, it could impact the overall market and limit Bitcoin's short-term upward space.

TradingEconomics data shows that the inflation rate has decreased from 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025. Trump quickly attributed this to himself, but economists warn that his pro-tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures.

The expectation of interest rate cuts cools down

Despite Trump's strong pressure to cut interest rates and even threaten to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates at the May 7 meeting is as high as 90.1%. In short: the market has heard Trump's demands but has not yet agreed.

Asset rotation under the shadow of tariffs

Trump's ongoing tariff rhetoric continues to hit the U.S. stock market (especially the tech stocks known as the "Magnificent Seven"), and this uncertainty, in turn, benefits Bitcoin—its safe-haven property as "digital gold" is being recognized.

In comparison, Bitcoin has risen 5.6% this year, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices have all fallen by 5% during the same period. Investors fleeing the turbulent traditional financial markets are beginning to favor the relative strength of Bitcoin.

100,000 USD in sight?

The geopolitical tensions and market anxieties during Trump's first hundred days in office unexpectedly became a tailwind for Bitcoin. BTC's steadfastness at the $90,000 mark amidst the turmoil is significant, showcasing its resilience and retaining hopes of hitting $100,000.

CryptoQuant on-chain data reveals key trends:

• Since April 22, the exchange's Bitcoin reserves have decreased by over $4 billion.

• The weekly deposit scale plummeted from 237.8 billion USD to 233.8 billion USD.

• Potential supply tightening is forming.

If demand remains strong while available supply continues to shrink, the time for Bitcoin to break through the six-figure barrier may come sooner than most people expect.