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As of today (May 3), the Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut expectations for May to July:
May 8: Probability of interest rate remaining unchanged is 100%;
June 19: Probability of unchanged interest rates is 63.1%, probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 36.9%;
July 31: Probability of no change in interest rates is 13.2%, probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.6%, and probability of a 50 basis point cut is 29.2%.
ps: The expectation of a rate cut on June 19 has cooled this week, down 16.7% from last week.