The dollar index has fallen and opened the way for Bitcoin's rise.

The crypto market is preparing for a strong price movement. The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen to a two-year low, while on-chain metrics indicate hidden accumulation of Bitcoin and a supply deficit.

The dollar is losing positions

The DXY has fallen below the 98 mark for the first time since the beginning of 2022. The weakening of the dollar traditionally creates a favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, noted CoinDesk's senior analyst James Van Straten.

The decline of the index is related to new inflation data in the US. The annual figure was 2.4%, which was lower than analysts' forecasts of 2.5%. This strengthened market expectations regarding a easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System of the USA.

According to CME FedWatch, 97% of traders expect the key interest rate to remain unchanged at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Data: CME FedWatch. Additional pressure on the US currency is exerted by talks of dedollarization and uncertainty in US trade policy.

Hidden Accumulation Phase

Against the backdrop of a positive macroeconomic environment, on-chain data for Bitcoin signals a reduction in supply. Despite low retail investor activity and recent negative funding rates, major players continue to accumulate the asset.

The number of coins on the wallets of centralized exchanges continues to fall. Since the beginning of 2025, the figure has decreased by 14% and reached 2.5 million BTC — the lowest level since August 2022.

Data: CryptoQuant.## OTC platform reserves at the bottom

Over-the-counter platforms (OTC), which are used for large transactions, are also experiencing a shortage. Their reserves have fallen to a historical low.

According to CryptoQuant, since January, the balances of wallets associated with the OTC segment of miners have decreased by 19% — to 134,252 BTC.

Data: CryptoQuant. Let's remember that at the end of May, analysts recorded the transition of Bitcoin whales from accumulation to sales.