Arthur Hayes full text: Circle is severely overvalued, but I advise you not to shorting.

The new shares of these stablecoins may cost the bears a loss. This article is from Arthur Hayes's article "Assume The Position", which was compiled, compiled and written by TechFlow. (Summary: Circle's stock price jumped 22% to break through $160 and continue to hit a record high!) CRCL up more than 420% in nine days, $300 institutionally) (Background supplement: ARK Invest took advantage of the high price to ship Circle stock about $51.7 million, the cost ratio is only 10%) Any views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or recommendation to make investment transactions. The following is the full text of Arthur Hayes: Given that Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire seems to have no choice but to take place at the "behest" of Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (the author here sarcastically implies that it lacks independence and is controlled by Coinbase), I hope that for those investors who trade any "stablecoin" related assets on the public stock market, This article can help you avoid the huge risks and losses that promoters incur when they impose worthless assets on retail investors who don't know the truth. With that in mind, I'm going to start talking about the past, present, and future of the stablecoin market. In the world of capital markets, professional cryptocurrency traders are somewhat unique. If they want to survive and thrive, they need a deep understanding of how money flows through the global fiat banking system. In contrast, stock investors or forex speculators do not need to know how stocks or currencies are settled and transferred, as the broker they must use will silently provide this service in the background. First of all, buying your first Bitcoin is not easy; What is the best and safest option is not clear. For most people, the first step (at least when I started dabbling in cryptocurrencies in 2013) was to buy Bitcoin by sending a fiat bank wire transfer directly to another person or paying with physical cash. You'll then upgrade to trading on exchanges that offer two-sided markets, where you can trade larger amounts of Bitcoin for smaller fees. But depositing your fiat currency on an exchange was/is not easy or straightforward. Many exchanges don't have strong banking relationships or are in a regulatory gray area in their home country, which means you can't wire money directly to them. The exchange came up with workarounds, such as directing users to transfer fiat currency directly to a local agent, who would issue cash vouchers on the exchange; Or set up an adjoining business ostensibly unrelated to cryptocurrencies so that in the eyes of the bank account opening manager it appears to be unrelated to cryptocurrencies, thereby obtaining an account and directing users to transfer funds there. Scammers take advantage of this friction to steal fiat currency in various ways. The exchange itself may lie about where the funds are going, and then one day...... Poof – the website disappeared along with your hard-earned fiat currency. If you use third-party intermediaries to move fiat currency inside and outside the crypto capital markets, these people could evaporate with your money at any time. Due to the risks involved in moving fiat currency in the cryptocurrency capital markets, traders must understand and trust the cash flow operations of their counterparties in detail. As money moved within the banking systems of Hong Kong, mainland China, and Taiwan (I call this region Greater China), I learned how to handle global payments. Understanding how money flows in Greater China helped me understand how the major Chinese and international exchanges (Bitfinex) do business. This is important because all the real crypto capital market innovation is happening in Greater China. This is especially true for stablecoins. Why this is important, the reasons will become obvious. The success story of the greatest cryptocurrency exchange in the West belongs to Coinbase, which opened in 2012. Coinbase's innovation, however, has acquired and maintained banking relationships in one of the markets most hostile to financial innovation: the Pax Americana. Other than that, Coinbase is just a very expensive cryptocurrency brokerage account, and that's exactly what it takes to propel its early shareholders to become billionaires. The reason why I am writing another long article about stablecoins is because of the huge success of the Circle IPO. To be clear, Circle is grossly overvalued, but prices will continue to rise. This listing marks the beginning, not the end, of the current stablecoin frenzy. The bubble will burst after the launch of a stablecoin issuer on some public market (most likely in the US) that will use financial engineering, leverage, and amazing showmanship to separate tens of billions of capital from fools. As usual, most people who hand over valuable capital won't understand the history of stablecoins and cryptocurrency payments, why the ecosystem has evolved the way it has been, and what this means for which issuers will succeed. A very reliable, charismatic guy will come onto the stage, spew all sorts of nonsense, wave his (most likely male) hand back and forth, and convince you that the leveraged shit he's peddling is about to monopolize the multi-trillion dollar stablecoin total addressable market (TAM). If you stop reading here, the only question you have to ask yourself when evaluating investments in stablecoin issuers is: how will they distribute their products? To distribute at scale — and I mean be able to reach millions of users at an affordable cost — publishers must use the channels of cryptocurrency exchanges, Web2 social media giants, or traditional banks. If they don't have distribution channels, there's no chance of success. If you can't easily verify that the publisher has the authority to push the product through one or more of these channels, run! Hopefully, my readers won't burn their capital in this way, because after reading this article, they will be able to think critically about the stablecoin investment opportunities in front of them. This article will discuss the evolution of stablecoin distribution. First, I'll talk about how and why Tether grew in Greater China, which laid the groundwork for their conquest of stablecoin payments in the Global South. Then I'll discuss the initial coin offering (ICO) craze and how this has created real product-market fit for Tether. Next, I'll discuss the Web2 social media giant's first attempt to enter the stablecoin game. Finally, I'll briefly mention how traditional banks will get involved. Again, because I know that X (platforms) make it difficult to read prose of more than a few hundred characters, and if a stablecoin issuer or technology provider can't distribute through a cryptocurrency exchange, Web2 social media giant, or traditional bank, they shouldn't do it. Cryptocurrency Banking in Greater China Current successful stablecoin issuers Tether, Circle, and Ethena all have the ability to distribute their products through large cryptocurrency exchanges. I'll focus on the evolution of Tether and mention Circle a little to illustrate that it's nearly impossible for any new entrant to replicate their success. At first, cryptocurrency trading was overlooked. For example, from 2014 to the late 2010s, Bitfinex held the crown of the largest non-Chinese global exchange. At that time, Bitfinex was owned by a Hong Kong operating company that had various local bank accounts. This is great for people like me who live in Hong Kong...