We know that Bitcoin has fallen by 12% in the last month, due to the conflict in the Middle East. As a risk asset, Bitcoin is easily influenced by public events. BlackRock has released a report specifically to analyze Bitcoin's performance after various geopolitical conflicts. Let's take a look together.

BlackRock's report compares Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and gold together. From the data in the chart, it can be seen that gold has always been the most stable during various public events and geopolitical conflicts. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, gold only fell by 9%, while Bitcoin fell by 25%. Sixty days after the event, various assets began to recover, with Bitcoin seeing the highest increase; it rose by 21% after 60 days of COVID-19 and by 131% after the 2020 election. This was likely due to the Fed implementing QE at the time, when interest rates were at 0, leading to a surge in risk assets. BlackRock's statistics show a pattern: after each major conflict or event, Bitcoin tends to experience significant increases. This has held true from the US-Iran conflict in 2020 to the US bank collapse in 2023, and this timeframe spans both bull and bear cycles, not all occurring during an upward trend.

After each major event, within 60 days, Bitcoin's increase is the highest among the three types of assets. Excluding one lowest and one highest point, the average increase is 24%. Starting from now, two months later, which is the end of August, Bitcoin's increase should remain at this average value of 24%. Let's wait and see.

Market Highlights: Ethereum has been oscillating within the range of 2410-2520 for three consecutive weeks. After breaking through 2878, it returned to the narrow oscillation within the box (due to the easing of the conflict between Israel and Palestine). As of 2025/7/2, after breaking below the lower support of the box at 2410, it retraced to a low of 2371.85. From the current trading volume, although the bulls have the momentum to continue pushing up, the trading volume is showing a decreasing trend. The main direction in the short term is still to look for a breakout above 2410-2520. Bears can choose to wait and observe, while entering long positions at lower levels. Wishing everyone to achieve prosperity in 5, struggle in 6, and turnaround in 7. Like and follow for more. Free reference provided.