#Grayscale ETF Approval# After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission #SOL# SEC #LTC# has already given the green light to spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the focus is now shifting to the next wave of exchange-traded funds backed by cryptocurrencies.

According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyfart, the second half of 2025 could be crucial, as several altcoin ETFs are nearing potential approval.
Analysts have updated their forecasts for SEC approval of several crypto ETFs, citing increasing regulatory clarity, growing institutional interest, and the precedent set by earlier approvals of spot ETFs.
95% probability of approval: candidates with a high degree of confidence
Three digital assets lead the ranking with a 95% probability of approval by 2025:
Solana #xrp# SOL(: Backed by numerous large companies, including VanEck, Fidelity, Bitwise, and 21Shares. The SEC has confirmed the filing of Form 19b-4, and a final decision is expected on October 10, 2025. It is considered "likely" to be treated as a commodity and already has futures regulated by the CFTC.
XRP: Submitted by companies like Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree. With a deadline for decision-making on October 17, 2025, it benefits from clarity in its legal status and increasing institutional support.
Litecoin )LTC(: With applications submitted by Canary, Grayscale, and Coinshares, the ETF is considered a low-risk candidate. The chances of approval are 95%, and the final decision is expected on October 2, 2025.
All these assets meet the SEC's unofficial criteria: Significant market liquidity, futures regulated by the CFTC, and recognition as commodities rather than securities.
90% chance of approval: strong contenders, slightly lower certainty
Four altcoins are just below their all-time high, with a 90% chance of approval by 2025:
Dogecoin )DOGE( and Cardano )ADA( have deadlines for making a final decision in October 2025, and are backed by Grayscale and other applicants.
Despite the status of DOGE as a meme coin, both will likely be considered commodities.
Polkadot )DOT( and HBAR )Hedera( have deadlines in November 2025. Applications for DOT have been submitted by Grayscale and 21Shares, while HBAR is supported by Canary and Grayscale. Both assets have futures markets and are well integrated into institutional frameworks.
Avalanche )AVAX( joins this group with applications from Grayscale and VanEck. The deadline for the SEC's decision is December 12, 2025.
60%-50% chance of approval: regulatory uncertainty continues
Approval is less likely for several newer or more vaguely defined assets:
SUI )60% chance(: A final decision is expected by December 21, 2025. The regulatory treatment remains "unknown" and there are no futures regulated by the CFTC.
TRON )TRX( and PENGU )50% probability each(: Both have applications submitted by Canary. However, the deadlines )23 January 2026 and 12 March 2026( are outside the period until 2025. The regulatory status of TRON is unclear, and PENGU lacks institutional support and coverage from the CFTC.
Crypto index and combined ETFs are also in play
In addition to individual assets, applications for crypto wallets/index ETFs from Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin are under review. With a decision expected on July 2, 2025, these products have been given a 95% probability of approval and are anticipated to be part of the first major wave of multi-asset ETF approvals from the SEC.
The SEC appears ready to open the door to a wider range of crypto ETFs in 2025. While Solana, XRP, and Litecoin lead the rankings with almost certain odds, several altcoins like DOGE, ADA, and AVAX are not far behind. However, assets with less clarity, such as SUI, TRX, and PENGU, may face a more difficult regulatory path.
With the intensification of the ETF race, all eyes will be on the SEC in the second half of 2025.