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Trump officially starts imposing tariffs: What impact will Korea face?
ㆍImpact on countries subject to tariffs in South Korea (
- Major export items of Korea)For example, if a 25% tariff is imposed on automotive parts(, the Korean economy will suffer a direct impact.
- Weakening export competitiveness: A 25% tariff will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of Korean products, leading to a sharp decline in sales in the US market.
↳ In particular, items such as automotive parts that have a significant impact on the final product price are even more serious.
- Decrease in exports and slowdown in economic growth: As exports to the U.S. decrease, the production of related industries is shrinking, which could lead to a decline in the domestic GDP growth rate.
- Deterioration of corporate performance and reduction in employment: The decline in exports leads to a deterioration in the sales and profitability of related companies, which can result in reduced investment and decreased employment, especially in export-oriented industries.
Decrease in trade surplus with the U.S.: There is a possibility that South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. may shrink or turn into a deficit.
Searching for alternative markets: As the impact on the U.S. market grows, Korean companies should seek to diversify their exports to other markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia.
Possibility of retaliatory tariffs: The South Korean government may also consider imposing retaliatory tariffs on the United States, but this poses a risk of further deepening trade conflicts between the two countries.
Since Korea is already recording a recession-type surplus, I believe that the domestic market is likely to become even more difficult.
This is a populist act of issuing national bonds to provide subsidies to the entire population, which I worry may shorten its lifespan.