Restructuring of Global Asset Landscape: The Rise of Crypto Assets as a New Balance Point

Recently, the tariff policies implemented by the United States have caused turmoil in global asset markets. Initially, this policy led to a significant market decline, but then the stance on the policy softened, combined with stable news from the Federal Reserve leadership, restoring investor confidence and driving a new round of risk appetite. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has performed particularly strongly.

Although macroeconomic indicators such as consumption and employment in the U.S. were not severely affected in April, risks have clearly increased. March non-farm payroll data was slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. Tariff policies have led to a significant increase in the prices of imported goods, which has stimulated consumption in certain industries in the short term, but overall consumption momentum has begun to weaken.

What is more concerning is that the consumer confidence index has seen a significant decline. In April, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index recorded the largest drop since 1978, and inflation expectations have also reached a high point not seen in decades. The deterioration of these soft indicators suggests that the economy may face greater challenges.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast in its latest report, with significant reductions in the growth expectations for the United States and the Eurozone. This reflects concerns from professional institutions regarding the global economic outlook.

The Federal Reserve is facing a severe policy dilemma. Inflation rates remain persistently above target, but slowing economic growth limits the room for interest rate hikes. Currently, the Federal Reserve has chosen to keep interest rates unchanged and stated that it will continue to closely monitor economic data before making any decisions. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates as early as the first half of 2025.

In early April, the US stock market suffered a heavy blow, with all three major indices experiencing significant declines. Tech stocks were particularly impacted, with some companies seeing their share prices plummet. However, by the end of the month, the stock market showed a notable rebound, partially offsetting the earlier losses. This rebound was driven by market expectations of potential adjustments to tariff policies, as well as some tech giants reporting earnings that exceeded expectations.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that this may only be a short-term technical rebound and advise investors to remain cautious. Before the Federal Reserve's policy shift or substantial progress in tariff negotiations, the U.S. stock market still faces significant uncertainty.

In contrast, Bitcoin's performance in April exceeded market expectations. It broke through the $94,000 mark, setting a new high for the year, rising in tandem with gold, demonstrating the characteristics of "digital gold." Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased, attracting a large amount of medium to long-term capital. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen significant net inflows for several consecutive days, pushing the global Crypto Assets market capitalization to over $3 trillion.

The wealth of long-term holders has significantly increased, reflecting the returns of a buy-and-hold strategy. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets has decreased, enhancing investors' confidence in it as a store of value. Currently, a large amount of Bitcoin is in profit, a phenomenon that historically often foreshadows the arrival of a bull market.

The market value of Bitcoin has surpassed that of some global tech giants, becoming the fifth largest asset after gold, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Notably, Bitcoin has shown a "decoupling" from the long-term correlation with U.S. tech stocks, demonstrating independent market performance and changes in asset attributes.

Some investment institutions have significantly raised their long-term price targets for Bitcoin, believing that its status as "digital gold" is increasingly solidified, and institutional investor interest continues to grow.

Currently, market trends still exhibit uncertainty and may continue to fluctuate in the short term. However, against the backdrop of numerous challenges facing traditional financial markets, the independence and counter-cyclical characteristics displayed by Crypto Assets may attract more investors seeking diversified asset allocation. This trend is reshaping the underlying logic of global asset pricing, with Crypto Assets gradually becoming an important part of global asset allocation.