Bitcoin Bull Run Cycle Analysis: Predicting the Next Price Peak

By conducting an in-depth study of Bitcoin's historical data, we can observe the patterns of the bull run cycles, which allows us to better predict the trends of the current cycle. This article will explore the potential timing and price levels at which Bitcoin may reach its next peak.

Pi Cycle Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top indicator is one of the popular tools for analyzing Bitcoin cycles. This indicator focuses on the 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by 2) moving averages, and when these two lines cross, it usually signifies that Bitcoin has reached a cycle peak, with a prediction accuracy typically within a few days. Currently, due to the sideways trend, these two lines have been separated for months, and the 111-day trend line has started to rise, with the gap between the two lines gradually narrowing.

We can better locate Bitcoin's position in the bull and bear cycles by measuring the difference between these two averages. Currently, this oscillation indicator is trending upward again, suggesting that Bitcoin may be about to welcome a new bull run, similar to the cyclical patterns of 2016 and 2020.

Historical Cycle Review

Throughout history, the Bitcoin bull run cycle has typically shown similar stages: initial rapid growth, a consolidation phase, a second peak, followed by a significant correction, and then a rise again.

The 2016 cycle experienced the first peak, a correction, the second peak, and then entered a full bull run. This is quite similar to the current trend, where Bitcoin's price hit a new high after two corrections.

Although the pattern of the 2020-2021 cycle is slightly different, similar trajectories can still be observed. Bitcoin prices experienced two peaks, one during the initial rise and the other at the peak of the bull run when it reached its historical high.

Based on the simulation of different growth scenarios in past cycles, and considering that the Pi cycle top and bottom oscillators have recently turned upwards, we can speculate on the potential path of this cycle.

Potential Peak Time

If the cyclical pattern of 2021 is repeated, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around the end of June 2025, signaling that Bitcoin could reach its peak. If the cyclical pattern of 2017 is repeated, this crossover may be delayed until the end of January 2026, indicating that the peak will occur later.

Price Prediction

Historically, Bitcoin prices often significantly exceed the moving average during peak periods. During the 2017 bull run, peak prices reached three times the value of the moving average. However, as the market matures, the returns on each cycle are declining, which means that the future increase in Bitcoin prices relative to the moving average may not be as pronounced as in the past.

If Bitcoin follows a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, with the price about 40% higher than the moving average, the peak could reach around $339,000. Considering the diminishing returns factor, the price may only be about 20% higher than the moving average, in which case the mid-2025 peak price could be close to $200,000.

If the extended cycle of 2017 reappears with diminishing returns, Bitcoin could peak at $466,000 in early 2026. More conservative growth expectations may lead to a peak price of around $388,000. Although the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $1 million during this cycle is low, these relatively moderate predictions still represent significant potential gains.

Conclusion

Although these predictions are based on reliable historical data, they cannot guarantee 100% accuracy. Each cycle has its unique influencing factors, including the economic environment, investor sentiment, and regulatory changes. Market maturation may lead to diminishing returns or prolonged cycles, all of which reflect the continuous evolution of the Bitcoin market. Investors should carefully consider these factors when making decisions and assess them in conjunction with their personal risk tolerance.