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The divergence in the Bitcoin market is intensifying, and whether the rebound can turn into a reversal is attracting follow.
Market Divergence Intensifies: Can the Rebound Change into a Reversal?
The increase in Bitcoin's open interest and the continuous escalation of key price levels on the liquidation map have further intensified market divergence. Currently, there are two mainstream views: one believes that the rebound may turn into a reversal, while the other believes that this is just the second distribution in a downward continuation.
Both viewpoints are based on supply and demand analysis, but they reach different conclusions. The argument supporting the Rebound is primarily demonstrated from three aspects:
The relationship between long-term holders and short-term holders. The profit and loss ratio of long-term holders (LTH-RPC) is close to triggering a bottom signal, while the profit and loss ratio of short-term holders (STH-RPC) starts to converge.
The supply and demand relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin. The BTC-SSR indicator shows that the momentum of stablecoin inflows into Bitcoin is accumulating, and it may be quickly released once it reaches the demand zone.
The high and low chip concentration areas form a double anchor effect. The $60,000-$70,000 and $93,000-$100,000 ranges each gather about 11% of the chips, which may limit the price fluctuations in the $70,000-$93,000 range.
The impact of tariff policy shocks is gradually weakening. Market sentiment is easing, short-term holders are increasing their profits, and long-term holders have not yet formed selling pressure, which may lead to a large inflow of stablecoins into Bitcoin. These factors increase the appeal of entering from the left side.
Support for the downward continuation view holds that the US stock market has entered a technical bear market, making it difficult for Bitcoin to rise independently. They believe that the trend of the US stock market aligns with the Wyckoff distribution theory and is currently in the downward phase after the distribution is complete.
The core of the market divergence lies in the judgment of the U.S. stock market trends and whether Bitcoin can decouple from the U.S. stock market to strengthen independently. Future trends will depend on the evolution of these factors.