Bitcoin has risen but has not broken through the $112,000 mark, and there is uncertainty in the market's short-term outlook.

The tax cut bill promoted by the Trump administration has passed a vote in the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into effect soon. Although this bill may lead to an increase in U.S. debt, the strong non-farm data from June has provided support for the implementation of the policy. The better-than-expected employment data has prompted the market to lower its expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, but Goldman Sachs analysts still maintain their prediction of consecutive rate cuts from September to December.

Meanwhile, the compliance process in the cryptocurrency industry is accelerating. A stablecoin issuer has applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is seen as a landmark event for the development of the industry. This move is expected to promote standardization in the industry and enhance the competitiveness of stablecoins in the international market.

In a complex macro environment, the Bitcoin market is showing caution. Although several analysts are optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook, predicting that prices could reach between $150,000 and $200,000 in the next year or two, there are still challenges in the short term. The most immediate resistance level is around $112,000, and if it cannot break through, it may retreat to the range of $106,000 to $107,500.

A well-known industry figure warned that recent policies may lead to a short-term contraction in US dollar liquidity, and the price of Bitcoin could fall to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects that before the end of August, the market may trade sideways or decline slightly, and only after liquidity recovers in early September could an upward trend be expected.

The overall performance of the altcoin market is mediocre, but some tokens such as $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest have seen significant increases. It is worth noting that the market capitalization of $DBC on a certain trading platform surged at one point, attracting market attention.

In terms of key data, as of July 4, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin was $109,188, and the price of Ethereum was $2,579.71. The market fear and greed index was 73, indicating a greedy range. The market shares of Bitcoin and Ethereum were 64.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Approximately 81,000 people globally faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, with a total amount reaching $193 million.

Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor U.S. economic data and policy trends, as well as regulatory developments in the cryptocurrency industry. In the short term, whether Bitcoin can break through the $112,000 mark will be the focus of the market. At the same time, the volatility of the altcoin market is also worth investors' continued attention.