Unveiling the Truth Behind the Success of Encryption Projects: Data-Driven Insights

In the cryptocurrency circle, there are often sayings about the "golden rules" for successfully issuing tokens: first accumulate a large number of followers, increase participation through tasks, raise funds from top venture capital, control the initial circulation, and hype it up during the token issuance. However, this common understanding is actually not reliable.

A recent in-depth study on 40 major token issuances in 2025 analyzed 50,000 data points, and the results have overturned many traditional views.

The Myth of Participation

Many project teams invest large amounts of money to enhance social media metrics, such as likes, shares, and comments. However, research shows that these metrics have almost no correlation with token price performance. Statistical analysis indicates that the correlation coefficient between engagement metrics and price performance is extremely low, at only 0.038.

Even more surprisingly, high participation is sometimes associated with poor price performance. Some projects, despite continuously releasing content, do not see a proportional relationship between user engagement and the actual user base.

The only indication of a weak positive correlation is the number of forwards in the week prior to issuance, but its statistical significance is also not significant.

Circulation Fallacy

It is widely believed in the industry that a low initial circulation can create scarcity and drive up prices. However, data shows that the proportion of initial circulation to total supply has no correlation with price performance.

What really matters is the absolute dollar value of the initial market capitalization. Research shows that for every 2.7 times increase in initial market capitalization, the price performance in the first month tends to drop by about 1.56%. This relationship is so tight that it can almost be seen as a causal relationship.

The Illusion of Venture Capital Support

Receiving support from well-known venture capital does not guarantee the success of a token. Research shows that there is no statistically significant relationship between the amount of financing and short-term return rates.

The reason may be that more financing often means higher valuations, which in turn implies greater selling pressure to overcome. Additional funds do not automatically translate into better token performance.

Misconceptions about Timing Selection

Traditional views suggest that important announcements should be made during the project launch week to maximize the publicity effect. However, data shows the exact opposite.

After the project is launched, user engagement often declines. Those projects that continue to perform well usually establish their reputation before the launch. They understand that the attention before the launch can attract real buyers, rather than a fleeting "hype".

Truly Effective Strategies

Since the above factors are not key, what are the elements of success?

1. Actual product utility: Projects that can naturally generate valuable content perform better.

2. Trading retention rate: Tokens that maintain trading volume after initial hype perform significantly better in price.

3. Reasonable initial market value: This is the strongest predictive indicator of success. Listing with a reasonable valuation provides room for growth.

4. Authentic Communication: Maintain a communication style that is consistent with the product. Overly cynical or insincere communication often leads to failure.

Why do traditional views have biases?

Social media platforms often reward engagement over accuracy. Many opinion leaders actually lack experience in issuing tokens, and their views may be disconnected from reality.

The Real Approach to Successful Projects

• Focus on building products with actual demand
• Reasonable pricing is adopted during token issuance.
• Maintain sincere communication with users
• Focus on the truly important metrics, rather than superficial data.

Taking a certain blockchain project as an example, they focus on technical explanations and educational content. Although they do not have many fans, they achieved a 150% increase in the first week after launch. This is due to their ability to genuinely spark people's interest in their innovation.

In contrast, projects that invest heavily in social marketing often perform poorly due to a lack of substantial content.

Ironically, while many projects cater to social algorithms, those that truly succeed are often the ones that quietly build valuable products and release them wisely.

Overall, the key to success lies in building truly useful products, adopting reasonable pricing strategies, maintaining transparent and honest communication, and focusing on truly important metrics. These factors are the cornerstone of long-term success compared to superficial hype and speculation.