Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report: Bitcoin Experiences Fluctuating Fall, Global Economic Uncertainty Has Significant Impact

This week, the Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, opening at $97,676.53 and ultimately closing at $96,475.82, a weekly fall of 1.23%. During this period, the highest amplitude reached 11.69%, once again challenging the range between $90,000 and $108,000, but trading volume has shrunk.

The uncertainty of the global economic situation has had a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of the week, due to concerns over North American trade tariffs, Bitcoin experienced a brief flash fall, followed by a rapid rebound. This phenomenon highlights Bitcoin's current property as a risk asset, far surpassing its positioning as digital gold.

Last weekend and the beginning of this week, the pressure from short contracts led to the largest intraday volatility of Bitcoin in recent times, with a volatility rate reaching 11.69%, and it hit a new low of 91178.01 USD since mid-January. This intense fluctuation resulted in approximately 800 million USD losses in the spot market, while the losses in the contract market could be as high as several billion USD.

After the large-scale liquidation, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $97,000. Despite several macroeconomic negative factors appearing on Friday, the market has shown relative stability. However, it seems difficult to restore and restart the upward trend solely relying on the internal forces of the market.

Currently, Bitcoin is still operating within the range of 89000 to 110000 US dollars, with the price hovering near the second upward trend line, facing a critical moment for direction choice in the short term.

Macroeconomic Environment

The global economic situation is complex and volatile. Although the trade tariff issues in North America have temporarily eased, uncertainties in economic data and policy still persist. The non-farm employment data in the United States shows mixed signals, while the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that consumer confidence has dropped to a seven-month low due to concerns about inflation.

The US dollar index fluctuated upwards to 108.31, reflecting the market's concerns over rising inflation and worsening expectations for interest rate hikes. The three major US stock indices saw significant declines, erasing the gains made throughout the week. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rebounded, with the 1-year and 10-year Treasury yields reaching 4.232% and 4.494% respectively, close to the high of 4.5%, putting pressure on the equity market.

In this uncertain environment, the gold market has performed remarkably. London gold has achieved a six-week consecutive rise, with this week's increase expanding to 2.18%, reaching $2861.81 per ounce.

Market Outlook

Next week, the market will welcome the release of the U.S. January CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional hearing. These two events will be key factors influencing the fall of Bitcoin next week.

Market Data Analysis

This week, long-term and short-term holders collectively sold 1,766,820,000 Bitcoins, which is a slight increase compared to last week but still at a normal level. However, the trading volume on exchanges has shrunk slightly. The futures market has been severely impacted, with potential losses in open contracts reaching up to ten billion dollars.

The stablecoin and Bitcoin spot ETF, as well as the Ethereum spot ETF, had a net inflow of $5.662 billion throughout the week, with stablecoins accounting for $5.074 billion, Bitcoin ETF for $183 million, and Ethereum ETF for $405 million, maintaining a strong inflow trend. However, it is worth noting that the inflow scale of Bitcoin spot ETF, which directly converts into purchasing power, has declined for two consecutive weeks, which may be the fundamental reason for the weak performance of Bitcoin prices.

According to the cyclical indicators of a certain data platform, the Bitcoin market is currently in an upward phase, with an indicator value of 0.625.