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Recently, the Bitcoin market has attracted widespread follow from investors. From the perspective of wave theory, the current market trend exhibits some interesting characteristics.
According to the latest analysis of the BTC daily chart, we can observe a clear five-wave structure forming. Currently, the market seems to have completed the first three upward wave segments, with the peak of the third wave around the 123218 point. Now, we are in the fourth wave adjustment phase, which typically manifests as a platform consolidation or double zigzag pattern.
Theoretically, the target range for this adjustment phase typically lies between 38.2% and 50% of the previous increase, corresponding to a price range of approximately 115657 to 113872. This prediction aligns closely with the first support area shown in the chart, which enhances the credibility of this analysis.
From the perspective of time cycles, if we use the duration of the third wave as a reference, it can be inferred that the adjustment of the fourth wave may last until around July 27. This kind of time symmetry is often used in technical analysis to predict market turning points.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is oscillating between 117,000 and 118,000, indicating that the market is still undergoing sideways consolidation. This state has not shown a clear downward breakout nor has it formed a distinct rebound structure, further supporting the judgment that 'the adjustment is not yet complete.' In addition, the current pullback has not yet reached 38.2% of the length of the third wave, which also suggests that there may be further room for a decline.
If the price falls below the key support level of 115657 in the short term, the next target may drop to 113872. If a deeper breakdown occurs, investors need to be wary of potential technical imbalances, which could lead to an expansion of the adjustment range. At that point, the lower support range may extend to 112300 to 111000.
On the other hand, if the price can regain 120973, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, this may indicate an early end to the adjustment phase, and the market will enter the fifth wave of the upward phase. In this case, the next target area may point to 132669 to 134000.
Overall, the current Bitcoin market is in a crucial adjustment phase. Investors should closely follow key price levels and volume changes to seize market trends in a timely manner. However, regardless of the situation, it is necessary to operate cautiously and manage risks properly.