GoldenOctober2024

On the 2nd, the US dollar index fell by 0.22%, closing at 100.029. The euro rose to 1.1300 against the dollar, while the pound fell to 1.3274. The yen dropped to 145.03 against the dollar, and the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona all weakened against the dollar.

On May 3, Jin10 reported that, according to Houthi armed forces, the U.S. military carried out at least seven intensive airstrikes on the port of Ras Isa in Yemen's Hodeidah province on the evening of the 2nd local time.

Jin10 reported on May 3 that sources familiar with the matter stated that on the evening of the 2nd local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu chaired a government security consultation meeting, which preliminarily approved the expansion of military operations in the Gaza Strip. It is expected that tens of thousands of reservists will be called up as a result. However, the report also indicated that Israel is expected to expand its military operations only to a limited extent, without the intention of occupying large areas of Gaza. The Israeli government is expected to hold a meeting on the 4th for the final approval of the relevant plans.

Jin10 data reported on May 3rd that on May 2nd local time, the Trump administration in the United States stated in a statement that it would cut federal spending by $163 billion next year. The Office of Management and Budget at the White House indicated that compared to levels set in 2025, the proposed budget would increase defense spending by 13%, increase homeland security spending by nearly 65%, and cut non-defense discretionary spending by 23%, bringing it to the lowest level since 2017. In addition, the White House proposed a budget of $1.7 trillion for fiscal year 2026, a decrease of 7.6% from the previous year. White House officials stated that the proposed budget for fiscal year 2026 contains the lowest non-defense spending since 2000.

Jin10 reported on May 3rd that according to IHS Markit high-frequency shipping data, refined copper shipments to the United States in April exceeded 170,000 tons, reaching the highest level since records began in 2014. Some organizations claim that if this data is corroborated by trade data disclosed by the U.S. government, it will surpass the historical high of approximately 142,000 tons set in November 2001.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz again urged the international community to conduct a credible, transparent, and neutral investigation into the recent shooting incident in the India-controlled Kashmir region.

The Trump administration plans to cut federal spending by $163 billion in fiscal year 2026, including increasing defense and homeland security spending, but reducing non-defense spending to its lowest level since 2017. The budget is $1.7 trillion, a decrease of 7.6% from the previous year, including the lowest non-defense spending since 2000.

Jin10 data May 2nd, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose above the closing level on April 2nd, recovering all the fall since Trump announced tariffs on that day.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Germany announced on the 2nd that it has classified the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a clearly far-right organization and will monitor the party at the federal level. The AfD stated that this is a "purely political decision." The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution also issued a statement that there is widespread opposition within the AfD to the "fundamental order of free democracy," and politicians from the party continuously incite the public against receiving refugees and immigrants. The statement said: "We conclude that the AfD is a firmly far-right organization. This conclusion is based on an extremely careful expert review lasting about three years."

Jin10 data reported on May 2, due to the dual factors of improved supply outlook and weak demand putting pressure on the market, raw sugar futures are heading towards a weekly decline after hitting a four-year low. The most active contract in the New York market once fell by 1.1%, to 16.97 cents per pound, the lowest level since mid-July 2021. This week, sugar futures prices have fallen by about 6%, as Brazil reported a good start to its crushing season, leading to market expectations of oversupply.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that analyst Cameron Crise stated that the data combination in the non-farm report gives traders reasons to lower their expectations for easing from The Federal Reserve (FED). In other words, since they are still pricing in expectations for The Federal Reserve (FED) to cut rates more than twice this year, if "hard data" like non-farm continues to challenge the economic weakness signals recently issued by "soft data," then there is further room for reducing bets on The Federal Reserve (FED) rate cuts.

On May 2, Jin10 reported that Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that the robust labor market data at this time provides the Federal Reserve (FED) with the space for patience. However, as the forward-looking outlook deteriorates, today's data feels somewhat retrospective, and the risk of economic weakness potentially leading the Federal Reserve (FED) to resume the easing cycle later this year still exists.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Allianz Chief Economist El-Erian stated that the April non-farm report confirmed the "lingering American exceptionalism." This indicates that we still have some momentum as we enter a difficult period. The question is, is this momentum strong enough to get us through the tough times?

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd that the average hourly wage in the United States increased by 0.2% in April, with the year-on-year growth rate remaining roughly stable at 3.8% compared to March. Since 2022, wage growth has gradually slowed, but the inflation driving real income growth for workers is also slowing down. How long wage growth can be sustained will be a key factor in determining whether the increase in one-time tariffs will translate into a long-term inflation cycle.

Jin10 data reported on May 2, the USD Index DXY has risen more than 20 points in the short-term, currently at 99.96. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD have fallen more than 30 points in the short-term, while the USD/JPY has risen 50 points in the short-term.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, the US dollar weakened before the non-farm payroll release, while non-US currencies and Spot gold strengthened.

According to LSEG data, on May 2, Jin10 reported that the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong side convertibility guarantee level of 7.75 HKD against the US dollar on Friday. The last time the Hong Kong dollar reached the strong side convertibility guarantee level was at the end of 2020, and it touched the weak side convertibility guarantee level in 2022 and 2023.

Jin10 reported on May 2 that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban stated in Budapest on May 2 that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused Hungary approximately 20 billion euros in losses over the past three years. Now, Ukraine is asking the EU to support it in maintaining a military force of 1 million, and this part of the funding should have been used for the EU's economic development. Ukraine's accession to the EU would lead to the bankruptcy of the Hungarian economy. Orban stated that the EU proposed joint borrowing to fund Ukraine because they have realized that they cannot continue to support Ukraine with existing resources. It is now necessary to prevent Europe from falling into a debt spiral.

Jin10 data reported on May 2nd, Japan's Kyodo News stated that the United States is unwilling to exempt Japan from the 10% reciprocal tariff, highlighting the difficult negotiations between the U.S. and Japan. Analysts from the financial website Forexlive indicated that the situation is not progressing smoothly... The issue here is that the U.S. may want to retain the 10% reciprocal tariff for all economies and "sell" it as good news; the market might even appreciate it (considering it is still much lower than what was announced on April 2nd), but Japan has not made concessions on this point.