5 Indicators Hint SOL Could Crash By 18%–22%, Slipping Under $130 By End of Week

Solana faces resistance at the 50-day SMA, hindering upward momentum.

Potential long squeeze and meme coin volatility may fuel sharp price swings.

Trade tensions and ETF developments add further uncertainty to Solana’s outlook

Solana (SOL) enters the week under mounting pressure, with several technical and market factors pointing to a possible sharp decline. Trading below major moving averages, SOL faces growing weakness that could push prices 18%–22% lower, potentially slipping below $130 by week’s end. Notably, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as a crucial resistance point, limiting any sustained bullish move.

Further, the market shows clear signs of bearish absorption. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) is dropping faster than price, suggesting weakening buyer support. Liquidity remains thin, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) shows declining buy pressure. As liquidity cools, sellers appear to be gradually unwinding positions, creating conditions for a slow price fade. These technical signals highlight the fragility in Solana’s short-term structure, preventing any strong rebound for now.

Looming Long Squeeze Threatens to Trigger Deeper Correction

Building on these weaknesses, Solana's price structure shows a sideways consolidation pattern since last week. This triangle formation may soon resolve sharply. While a breakout above $153 could renew bullish momentum toward $164, the current positioning suggests the risk of a downside break.

If the bottom of the triangle is breached, sustained squeeze would drive losses faster. Curiously, the leveraged longs would be forced to close out in a hurry, even feeding back into the decline. Such underlying pressures increase the likelihood of rapid price correction, especially as buy-side demand is still limited.

This configuration is reinforced further by the role of Solana in the broader market. SOL often serves as the basis for meme coins' liquidity, and rising speculative momentum in the space can be fuelling price volatility.

Meme Coin Frenzy and Broader Market Concerns Add to Volatility

Meme coins based on Solana experienced increased trading activity in recent sessions. When SOL rallies, the tokens tend to spike up, forming a feedback loop that contributes to short-term speculation. However, this dynamic can also amplify losses when sentiment shifts.

Meanwhile, external factors introduce further uncertainty. Trade tariff concerns have prompted a risk-off mood among crypto traders. Investors may shift away from risk assets like Solana until these tensions ease.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Solana ETF approval process remains in focus. The SEC has requested amended filings this month, which could accelerate the timeline for a decision. Six issuers have filed for a Solana ETF, potentially following Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, until there is regulatory clarity, speculation will likely drive volatility.