The global trade order is facing a reshaping, and Bitcoin's "digital gold" status is becoming prominent.

In March, the global market fell into a state of policy uncertainty, seeking new anchors. U.S. stocks accelerated in valuation reconstruction, and the cryptocurrency market also fluctuated accordingly. In early April, new tariff policies were introduced, leading to a profound reshaping of global trade order, with countries' economic policies forced to adjust. In this context, maintaining patience is particularly important. As the new order gradually takes shape, market sentiment is expected to gradually improve.

In early April, the U.S. government announced the implementation of a "comprehensive reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a base tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods, and adding additional taxes on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This move has triggered the most intense wave of reshaping the global trade order since World War II.

After the announcement, the market experienced severe fluctuations. U.S. stocks and the dollar plummeted, with the dollar index falling below the 104 mark. Nasdaq futures dropped over 4%, and S&P 500 futures fell by 3.5%. The decline in stocks of American tech giants was particularly pronounced. Funds flowed into safe-haven assets, causing spot gold prices to soar to a historical high.

The tax rate and scope of this tariff policy are far higher and broader than Wall Street's previous expectations. Investors are worried that the tariff war could impact U.S. economic growth. Firstly, there is the risk of supply chain disruption, as high tariffs force companies to accelerate supply chain restructuring, significantly increasing the costs in the industrial chain. Secondly, there are concerns about an inflationary spiral, with some analysts suggesting that the U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 2 to 2.8 percentage points.

Some economists have significantly raised the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. In March, some economic data in the U.S. showed a decline, with the consumer confidence index falling to 57, below expectations. The core PCE price index still reached 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty at the March interest rate meeting. On one hand, economic growth is showing signs of slowing down; on the other hand, inflation remains quite sticky. In this situation, the Federal Reserve's policy decision is caught in a dilemma. In March, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%.

After the announcement of the new tariff policy, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in June. According to reports, the probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting has risen to about 70%. However, the impact of the tariff policy goes far beyond the domestic economy and monetary policy of the United States. Other countries are formulating countermeasures, and global trade friction may transition from "spot conflicts" to "systemic confrontation".

U.S. stocks continued to decline in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 8.7% and 12.3% respectively in the first quarter, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Since November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen over 10%, with a market value evaporation of about $4 trillion.

The optimistic expectations of institutions for the US stock market are being revised. Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500, while Morgan Stanley warns that corporate earnings may need to hit bottom for support. The expected profit growth rate for the S&P 500 in 2025 has been revised down from 11% to 7%, and the earnings growth advantage of tech giants is narrowing.

The confusion of U.S. policy signals has further intensified market panic. Contradictory statements have left investors at a loss, severely impacting market confidence. Tech giant stocks have been the first to face a wave of sell-offs, reflecting a correction of the previous valuation bubble and concerns over policy uncertainty.

In this environment, institutions warn investors to adopt more diversified strategies and not to blindly bet on a one-sided rise in the US stock market.

Although Bitcoin is also affected by market fluctuations and policy uncertainties, it has shown relatively strong performance. In March, Bitcoin exhibited a "V-shaped" fluctuation, with a monthly decline narrowing to 2.09%, significantly better than the Nasdaq index. During this market turmoil, Bitcoin has charted an independent trend.

The recognition and regulatory process of the U.S. government in the field of crypto assets has become increasingly clear. In early March, the U.S. government officially established a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," incorporating approximately 200,000 BTC into the reserve, marking the establishment of Bitcoin's status as "digital gold." The SEC is also gradually easing its stance on cryptocurrencies, shifting from "enforcement-led" to "cooperation and rule-making."

Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, continues to rise. CEOs of top global asset management firms have mentioned Bitcoin multiple times in their annual letters to investors, suggesting its potential key role in the evolving global economic landscape.

With the new tariff policy taking effect, the economic outlook for the United States has become more uncertain. If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to experience a trend reversal in the second quarter. During times of economic instability, the scarcity and safe-haven attributes of Bitcoin may become more pronounced.

In the long term, if tariff policies drive up inflation and affect the credit of the US dollar, it may prompt capital to shift towards non-sovereign assets. In the process of reshaping a new global financial order, Bitcoin may become one of the most disruptive variables.