Is Altcoin Season Truly Over? Opportunities or Bubbles for Altcoins in H2 2025?

1. Alt season concept review

“alt season” refers to a period when a large number of alts outperform BTC. The standard threshold is Altcoin Season Index ≥75, while BTC.D significantly declines.

2. Review of the latest trends of BTC & ETH

• Bitcoin (BTC): After recently reaching a new high of 120,000 USD, it has slightly corrected and is overall in a high-level consolidation, with bullish sentiment continuing.
• Ethereum (ETH): Up over 17% in the past week, ETH/BTC ratio increased by over 8%, indicating funds shifting from BTC to ETH and some alts.

3. Altcoin Season Index In-Depth Observation

• The index rebounded from a low of 11-15 to the range of 27-35.
• Some platforms have even briefly surpassed 75 on July 8, indicating that the “brief highlight phase” has already occurred.
• However, mainstream platforms still show that the index has not stabilized above 75, indicating that the alt season is still in an early rotation state.

4. Structural changes in total market cap and BTC.D

• TOTAL2 total market cap rose from 1.05 trillion USD to 1.21 trillion USD, breaking through the descending wedge.
• BTC.D has retreated from 65.8% to about 64%. If it continues to fall below 60%, it will accelerate the alts market.

5. Analyst and News Perspectives

• AInvest pointed out that “July will mark the beginning of the alt season,” supported by capital inflow and the structure of TOTAL2 and BTC.D.
• Binance officially emphasized that the Altcoin Season Index has returned to 32, indicating signs of rotation.
• Media such as Business Insider believe that the halving cycle and stronger institutional participation will jointly drive the altcoin bull market.

6. Has the alt season started?

• Some advanced platforms have confirmed a short-term index exceeding 75, but mainstream indices remain below 50.
• The technical indicators such as BTC.D, TOTAL2, RSI, MACD, etc. continue to align in a favorable direction;
• Leading alts such as XRP, SOL, and ADA have shown a clear upward trend.

In summary, it is judged to be the “early alt season initiation phase”, currently in a rotation diffusion, rather than a bubble top explosion.

7. Beginner Investment Strategies

• Preferred leaders and hot spots: First choice ETH, SOL, ADA, XRP; pay attention to emerging hot spots such as ARB, BONK, LILPEPE, Sonic.
• Closely monitor technical signals: Pay attention to whether BTC.D falls below 60% and whether ETH/BTC breaks above 0.065.
• Enter in batches: the first wave focuses on mainstream coins, the second wave can participate in high-growth alts.
• Profit and loss setting: It is recommended to take profits in batches when profits reach 20-30%; timely stop loss to protect the principal when there is a 10% decline.
• Robust Risk Control: Position control within 20% of total funds, and always track changes in ETFs and macro policies.

Conclusion: In the second half of 2025, the alt season is slowly starting, representing a phased rotation process rather than a frenzied bubble. Newcomers should prioritize stability, follow signals, participate rationally in stages, embrace potential opportunities while avoiding risks.