Golden Ten Review: Institutional Outlook on the Central Bank of the United Kingdom's Resolution - First Drop Suspended, Hawkish and Dovish Evenly Matched

GoldenOctober2024 · 2024-08-01T08:05:33+00:00

1. JPMorgan Chase: May cut interest rates by 25 basis points by a close vote of 5:4. 2. Deutsche Bank: United Kingdom's Central Bank will decide to cut interest rates by a 5-4 vote on Thursday. 3. Bank of United States: Will vote 5-4 in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, but there is a growing risk that the overall rate cut will be lower than market expectations. 4. J.P. Morgan Asset Management: With a possible rate cut on Thursday, the United Kingdom's Central Bank will seek a preemptive rate cut cycle to ease the pressure on monetary policy. 5. Commerzbank: May cut interest rates on Thursday, given the continued rise in core inflation, the United Kingdom Central Bank may have to make a fairly cautious voice to continue supporting the pound. 6. Netherlands International: 25 basis points may be cut by a 6:3 vote, and the future policy path statement is expected to be relatively vague. If rates are cut, it is expected that there could be two more rate cuts this year. 7. Barclays: It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.0%, and the vote result is very close to 5:4. A rate cut in August would be a reduction in restrictions, not a shift to an accommodative policy stance. 8. TD Securities: Slightly inclined to a 25-point rate cut with a 5-4 vote, but uncertainty is high due to high services inflation and changes in the membership of the Monetary Policy Committee. 9. Mitsubishi UFJ: Rate cuts are expected by 25 basis points, but this is an unpredictable result. The United Kingdom Central Bank may indicate that policy is not on the path set and will continue to monitor persistent inflation risks. 10. Saxo Bank: It is expected to keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 5.25%, and the two rate cuts and one vote on hold at the June meeting are unlikely to change. 11. Capital Macro: The recent strong performance of the economy and sticky services inflation will keep the United Kingdom Central Bank on hold, with the first rate cut expected in September. 12. Danske Bank: Will keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 5.25%. The United Kingdom Central Bank is expected to make modest adjustments to its forward guidance in preparation for the upcoming rate-cutting cycle that the market will embark on. 13. Monex: The United Kingdom Central Bank's recent limited rhetoric and much higher-than-Central Bank expected services inflation have tilted the balance of risk towards keeping the Intrerest Rate unchanged, but the decision is like a "coin toss". 14. Reuters poll: In the last survey, 49 out of 60 analysts said United Kingdom's Central Bank would cut the Intrerest Rate to 5%.

GoldenOctober2024

2024-08-01 08:05:33

Abstract generation in progress

JPMorgan Chase: May cut interest rates by 25 basis points by a close vote of 5:4. 2. Deutsche Bank: United Kingdom's Central Bank will decide to cut interest rates by a 5-4 vote on Thursday. 3. Bank of United States: Will vote 5-4 in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, but there is a growing risk that the overall rate cut will be lower than market expectations. 4. J.P. Morgan Asset Management: With a possible rate cut on Thursday, the United Kingdom's Central Bank will seek a preemptive rate cut cycle to ease the pressure on monetary policy. 5. Commerzbank: May cut interest rates on Thursday, given the continued rise in core inflation, the United Kingdom Central Bank may have to make a fairly cautious voice to continue supporting the pound. 6. Netherlands International: 25 basis points may be cut by a 6:3 vote, and the future policy path statement is expected to be relatively vague. If rates are cut, it is expected that there could be two more rate cuts this year. 7. Barclays: It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.0%, and the vote result is very close to 5:4. A rate cut in August would be a reduction in restrictions, not a shift to an accommodative policy stance. 8. TD Securities: Slightly inclined to a 25-point rate cut with a 5-4 vote, but uncertainty is high due to high services inflation and changes in the membership of the Monetary Policy Committee. 9. Mitsubishi UFJ: Rate cuts are expected by 25 basis points, but this is an unpredictable result. The United Kingdom Central Bank may indicate that policy is not on the path set and will continue to monitor persistent inflation risks. 10. Saxo Bank: It is expected to keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 5.25%, and the two rate cuts and one vote on hold at the June meeting are unlikely to change. 11. Capital Macro: The recent strong performance of the economy and sticky services inflation will keep the United Kingdom Central Bank on hold, with the first rate cut expected in September. 12. Danske Bank: Will keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged at 5.25%. The United Kingdom Central Bank is expected to make modest adjustments to its forward guidance in preparation for the upcoming rate-cutting cycle that the market will embark on. 13. Monex: The United Kingdom Central Bank's recent limited rhetoric and much higher-than-Central Bank expected services inflation have tilted the balance of risk towards keeping the Intrerest Rate unchanged, but the decision is like a "coin toss". 14. Reuters poll: In the last survey, 49 out of 60 analysts said United Kingdom's Central Bank would cut the Intrerest Rate to 5%.

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