The US stock market faces the largest "Triple Witching Day" in history, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate.

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate this week, in line with market expectations, but the overall stance is hawkish. Officials have differing views on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged. Current inflation is close to the 2% target, but has not yet fully reached it, and economists warn that premature rate cuts could lead to a rebound in inflation.

This Friday, approximately $6.5 trillion in U.S. stock options and derivative contracts will be set to expire, and this "Triple Witching Day" event may lay the groundwork for volatility in the market next week. The founder of research firm Asym 500 LLC pointed out that since May, the intraday volatility of U.S. stocks has been relatively mild, thanks to the "pinning effect" created by a large amount of put option trading at the beginning of the year. Analysts believe that this expiration date could become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors should be wary of potential market volatility risks.

The virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve phase, and the focus of the industry is shifting from "digital natives" represented by Bitcoin to "digital twins" represented by stablecoins and asset tokenization. Digital twins are the greatest innovation of distributed ledger technology, with stablecoins and asset tokenization being the most representative forms. Stablecoins are essentially the tokenization of currency, possessing both legal and technical attributes, and are considered the optimal form of currency at present, which will occupy an important position in the future global financial system.

The cryptocurrency market is relatively flat, with the price of Bitcoin remaining mostly unchanged over the past three days, and less than 100 million USD in liquidations in the past 24 hours. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has increased investors' risk-averse sentiment, leading to a rise in demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasury bonds, while demand for risk assets like Bitcoin has decreased. On the technical front, the price of Bitcoin is constrained by multiple moving average resistance levels around 106,000 USD, with low market trading volume and the relative strength index near the midpoint, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. If it breaks the moving average resistance in the short term, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to challenge the 112,000 USD high, but the current momentum is insufficient, and it may continue to consolidate.

Multiple analysis agencies have pointed out that the market is showing characteristics of low volatility, narrowed price ranges, and weakened on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors becoming the dominant force. If demand continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin may fall back to the support level of $92,000, or even drop to $81,000.

The current price of Solana is oscillating within the key support range of $140-145, which is seen as a potential trend reversal point. Analysts suggest that investors should consider positioning long orders in the range of $128-140, with target prices of $204.31, $229.01, and $258.45 respectively. If the SOL price breaks below the $140 support, it could trigger an accelerated decline, targeting the $102-103 area. Conversely, if it can break above $160-170 with increased trading volume, it may reverse the current bearish pattern, with upward targets possibly pointing to the $180-$220 range.

In the altcoin market, the MEME coin LABUBU has dropped 23% in the past 24 hours, continuing a three-day decline, with its market cap falling from a recent high of $60 million to $27 million. Within the Solana ecosystem, crypto lawyer Gabriel Shapiro proposed the idea of forking Solana and launched an experimental chain called Gorbagana, whose token $GOR once reached a market cap of $40 million. The popularity of Meme coins on Avalanche has cooled, with the newly launched $PUFF currently at a market cap of $3.6 million and $MEOW at $2.2 million.

Important Data and Market Trends

• Bitcoin: $104,658 (Year-to-date +11.46%), Daily spot trading volume $17.204 billion
• Ethereum: $2,520.03 (Year-to-date -24.9%), Daily Spot Trading Volume: $9.922 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.10206
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 55,924 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 89.34 million USD.

Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for 8 consecutive days, while Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow for 3 consecutive days. The largest gains among the top 500 by market capitalization: Threshold (T) up 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) up 15.66%, StormX (STMX) up 14.77%.

Industry Trends

• Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits an 18-month low, as the craze for Runes and Ordinals fades.
• Semler Scientific appoints Bitcoin Chief Strategy Officer, plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of surveyed institutions globally have used stablecoins for payments.
• The Bitcoin treasury reserves of publicly listed companies have exceeded 768,500 coins, worth over 82 billion dollars.
• Fidelity: The growth rate of the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has surpassed the daily new output.
• SOL Strategies submitted a Form 40-F registration statement to the SEC in the United States, planning to list on Nasdaq under the code "STKE".
• LGHL has secured $600 million in funding from ATW Partners to launch the HYPE treasury.
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback plan.