Ethereum Value Reconstruction: Analyzing the Current Status of Ecological Development from Data

After experiencing a significant increase from $1,385 to $2,700, the Ethereum market presents a complex situation. Institutional investors remain cautious about ETFs, while derivatives contracts have reached a historic high of $32.2 billion. The market seems to hope to reestablish Ethereum's value position through this rebound, while the Pectra upgrade also supports this view. By comprehensively analyzing Ethereum's various data, we can outline its current real state and reveal a network ecosystem undergoing value reconstruction.

Market Capital Flow: Caution in ETFs and Enthusiasm in Contracts

As of May 18, the total net assets of US ETH ETFs reached $8.97 billion, accounting for 2.89% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs account for 5.95% of its total market capitalization, indicating that Bitcoin is still more favored in the ETF market.

From February to the end of April, the funds for Ethereum ETFs mostly showed an outflow. It only started to flow back in on April 21, but the magnitude was not large. The net inflow in April was about $66.25 million, and from the beginning of May to now, it is about $30 million.

According to a data platform, by the end of April, Ethereum's "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" ( NUPL ) turned positive. Previously, when the price fell below $1800, most holding addresses were in a loss state. As of May 17, NUPL reached a maximum of 0.328, still in the early stages of a bull market or recovery.

Interestingly, as the price rebounds, the number of addresses holding more than 1 ETH has decreased, indicating that some investors have chosen to take profits. Currently, the proportion of profitable addresses has reached 60%.

Although still far from the historical high, the contract open interest has reached a new high. On May 14, it reached $32.249 billion, nearly equal to the historical peak. This indicates that the market's speculative enthusiasm for Ethereum remains strong.

Overall, since the end of April, Ethereum has started to attract capital inflows, and the price has risen significantly. However, from the perspective of ETF fund flows, the proportion of traditional institutions increasing their holdings remains limited.

TVL rebounds, but low Gas fees failed to stimulate trading volume

In terms of on-chain activity, the daily active addresses of Ethereum remain between 400,000 and 600,000, with a recent trend of breaking through 600,000.

The change in TVL (Total Value Locked) is more pronounced. Measured in USD, the TVL has rebounded since April 22, rising from around $45 billion to a peak of $64.6 billion. However, considering the significant increase in the price of Ether, this change may not fully reflect the actual situation on-chain. Measured in Ether, the on-chain staking volume has significantly decreased since April 9, dropping from 30.26 million to a low of 24 million, a decline of 20%.

This may be due to some funds choosing to take profits or avoid non-compensable losses during the rapid price increase.

Regarding gas fees, the average on May 16 was 3.572 Gwei, a significant decrease of 21.57% compared to the previous day, and a sharp decline of 51.76% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a downward trend in the past 30 days, with a brief spike to 10.61 Gwei on May 8, but it has recently remained below 8 Gwei. This is related to EIP-7691 in the Pectra upgrade, which aims to reduce L2 fees by expanding blob space.

However, the extremely low Gas fees do not seem to have stimulated the growth of on-chain transactions, and the number of daily transactions has not changed significantly.

DEX Trading and Asset Landscape: Dominance of Stablecoins and Ecological Transformation

On-chain staking data shows that from April 15 to May 5, there was a continuous net outflow of Ethereum staking. A certain trading platform has seen 30% of its staking flow out in the past 6 months. Currently, the largest validator is still a certain staking platform, with a staking amount of 9.11 million coins.

In terms of DEX trading volume, the Ethereum mainnet is expected to be significantly active in 2025, approaching the peak period of 2021 to 2022. However, from the revenue data, the recent increase in trading activity mainly comes from stablecoin-related transactions. A certain stablecoin generated $568 million in fees on Ethereum over the past 30 days.

As of May 18, Ethereum remains the public chain with the largest issuance of stablecoins, accounting for over 50%, with a total issuance of 127.3 billion USD, which is twice its DeFi TVL.

On-chain funding category analysis shows that nearly half of the transactions are completed through stablecoins and Ether transfers. The proportion of stablecoin transactions has significantly increased, while the share of DeFi and ERC-20 token transactions has decreased. This indicates that Ethereum is transforming into a center for on-chain asset value storage, while the development of MEME and application types seems to be constrained.

Although the average on-chain transfer amount of Ethereum has declined, it still ranges between several thousand dollars and ten thousand dollars, far exceeding that of other public chains, highlighting its characteristic as a "chain exclusive to large holders."

Conclusion

The recent price rebound of Ethereum seems more like the result of growing pains during a transformation period. On one hand, its ecosystem is striving to optimize performance through technological updates and upgrades, but the effects appear to be limited. On the other hand, it has become a hub for large capital and stablecoin trading, with large holders seemingly satisfied with its current state.

Therefore, the rise and fall of a single indicator has become difficult to simply define the merits of Ethereum. The market may need to transcend traditional growth narratives and reassess Ethereum's core role and long-term value in a multi-chain landscape. Rather than judging whether it is in a "rise" or "decline", it is better to recognize that after various iterations, a more mature and "stable" Ethereum may be the inevitable direction and final form of its evolution.